Friday, May 30, 2014

День Відкритих Дверей/барбекю - Пансіон ім. Івана Франка

В імені Екзекутивного Директора Пансіону ім. Івана Франка Терені Тонкович щиро запрошуємо Вас на наш щорічний День Відкритих Дверей/барбекю, який відбудеться у Пансіоні у неділю, 15 червня 2014 року від 1:00 до 5:00 год. пополудні за адресою: 3058 Winston Churchill Blvd., Mississauga (at Dundas St. W. & Winston Churchill).











Event timeline:

1:00 - BBQ picnic begins (outside)
Musical entertainment of V. Kokhanovskyj ("Rezonans" Studio), Petting Zoo, Pony Rides, Magician's Strolling Sorcery Performance, Balloonist, Bird Name competition, Kiosks (outside, till 4:00 pm)

2:00 - Official Opening and Greetings from the Executive Director
Viewing the Home (indoors, 2:00 till 3:30 pm)

3:30 - Concert (indoors)
- "Chervoni Maky" Trio
- Oksana Kaschuk, young vocalist -"Echo" Studio
- "Barvinok" Dance Group
- Raffle Draws and Silent Auction

5:00 - Closing

Щиро дякуємо за підтримку і нетерпеливо очікуємо бачити Вас серед наших Дорогих і Достойних Гостей.

З повагою,
Квітка Гриньків-Лопушанська

Kvitka Hrynkiv-Lopushanski
Health Care & Recreational Program Coordinator
Ivan Franko Home
T. 905-820-0573

Win 1 of 5 pairs of tickets to go to Pikkardiyska Tertsiya!

Just Like our Facebook page plus the contest picture on our timeline and you'll be automatically entered! Click HERE to get to our Facebook page!


Crisis in Ukraine - May 30 Briefing from UCC


Crisis in Ukraine: Daily Briefing
30 May 2014, 4 PM Kyiv time

1. Kremlin-backed "separatism" in Eastern Ukraine
The active phase of the anti-terrorism operation (ATO) in Donetsk and Luhansk continues. The State Border Service of Ukraine reports that a border checkpoint near Stanychno-Luhanske, Luhansk oblast, was attacked by armed “separatists.” The border checkpoint was successfully defended; one Ukrainian serviceman was injured. A 29 May battle between armed “separatists” and Ukrainian armed forces at an army headquarters in Oleksandrivsk, Luhansk oblast, ended with no casualties on the Ukrainian side. According to the Ministry of Defense, south and western Donetsk oblast, and northern Luhansk oblast, have been fully cleared of armed “separatists.” The State Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) report that an unmanned drone aircraft, the same make and model of one used by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, was shot down in the ATO zone. The SBU also stated that they detained a citizen of Ukraine near Izyum, Kharkiv oblast, who testified that he had undergone training by the Intelligence and Security Services of Russia, in a camp in Rostov oblast in the Russian Federation, after which he was sent to Ukraine to attack Ukrainian armed forces checkpoints. According to reports, at least 8 of the armed “separatists” killed in the last week during the ATO are citizens of the Russian Federation. The State Border Service reports that three automobiles that were trying to cross the Ukraine-Russia border were stopped, carrying large amounts of weapons, including 27 AKs, and 5 grenade launchers.

2. CEC completes acceptance of official election protocols

Mythbusting Putin in Ottawa

The Ukrainian community in Ottawa is holding a great event aimed at politicians and diplomats to provide them with facts that counter the propaganda being spread about the situation in Ukraine by Putin and his PR machine.

According to Natalia Stepaniuk, one of the organizers, the event is "both an awareness and fundraising night to make the general public more informed on the propaganda distributed by Russia, while also collecting funds for those who suffered from the recent unrest instigated by Putin. Our target audience is outside of the Ukrainian community (of course, everyone is invited!) as we want to dispel the main narratives that discredit Ukraine and Maidan. This is the reason we want to attract top rank officials who might have been misled by the myths."

We are proud to be supporting this event and we call on our members and friends in the Ottawa area to call one of the numbers below to see how they can help as well.

Here is a bit of information about the event:

What:
Fundraising event: "Myth Busters: Busting Putin’s Myths about Ukraine”. The event includes entertainment, participation in a quiz show, raffles and a caricature artist.

Who: 
EuroMaidan Ottawa, St. Matthew the Apostle Anglican Church and the Assumption of the Blessed Virgin Ukrainian Orthodox Church with support from the Ukrainian Canadian and Professionals and Business association (UCPBA Ottawa branch)

When:
Tuesday, June 10 starting at 6:30 pm

Thursday, May 29, 2014

Фінансовий Коментар - Україна: найкраще – попереду

Україна: найкраще – попереду

У той час як відновлена українська державність переживає хрещення вогнем, прийшов час подивитися на економічну ситуацію в новій Україні. На тлі повномасштабної військової Антитерористичної Операції ці питання не можуть бути в центрі уваги, але економічна картина, яка зараз розгортається в Україні, також не є для людей зі слабкими нервами.

У той час як Канада та США готуються до росту ВВП цього року на 2.0%-2.5%, аналітики прогнозують падіння ВВП України на 4%-10%. Національна валюта гривня щойно втратила більше 30% своєї вартості по відношенню до долара США, що може бути корисно для експорту, але створює сильний тиск на споживачів, враховуючи, що 42% усіх кредитів в Україні деноміновані у твердій валюті. Додатковий тиск на споживачів створюють ціни на енергоносії, які цього року мають зрости більш ніж на 50%, відповідно до угоди з Міжнародним Валютним Фондом (МВФ). На тлі подорожчання імпорту через девальвацію гривні, все це напевне призведе до прискорення інфляції, яка може скласти більше 10% у цьому році. Додайте до цього газовий конфлікт з Росією, який навряд чи вщухне у осяжному майбутньому.

Наразі гарні економічні новини для України надходять в основному з-за кордону. Зокрема, країна отримує фінансування від міжнародних установ, яке має підтримати економіку протягом перехідного етапу. Україна вже отримала понад $3 млрд. в межах дворічного кредиту МВФ на $17 млрд. Світовий Банк оголосив цьогорічну програму допомоги Україні на $3.5 млрд. Європейський Банк Реконструкції та Розвитку планує цього року інвестувати близько €1 млрд. в українські проекти. Крім того, Європейський Союз нещодавно в односторонньому порядку відмінив тарифи і квоти на український імпорт.

Економічна картина в Україні може виглядати похмуро, але за останні кілька місяців українці неодноразово демонстрували безпрецедентні винахідливість і рішучість у подоланні найважчих обставин. Зараз, після успішних виборів Президента, ми є більш оптимістичними з приводу майбутнього України, ніж будь-коли раніше.

Українська Кредитова Спілка Лимитед

Financial Comment - Economic progress ahead for Ukraine?

Ukraine: a lot of progress ahead
While Ukraine’s regenerated statehood is undergoing baptism by fire, it is time to look at the economic issues of the new Ukraine. On the background of the full-scale military Anti-Terrorist Operation, these issues might not be in a spotlight, but the unfolding economic picture is not for the faint of heart either.

While the Canadian and U.S. economies are gearing for 2.0%-2.5% in GDP growth this year, the range of analytical forecasts for Ukraine’s 2014 GDP is within 4%-10% contraction. The nation’s currency hryvnia has just lost more than 30% of its value to the U.S. dollar, which may be beneficial for exports but is placing severe pressure on consumers given that 42% of all loans in Ukraine are denominated in hard currency. Further pressure on consumers is coming from energy prices which will rise this year by more than 50%, according to the agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Along with more expensive imports due to the hryvnia’s devaluation, this all is likely to drive inflation to double digits this year. Add to that the never-ending gas conflict with Russia who wants to raise prices again.

So far, good economic news for Ukraine has mainly come from abroad. In particular, the country is getting financing from foreign institutions which should provide support during the transitional stage. Ukraine has already received more than $3 billion within the $17-billion two-year loan from the IMF. The World Bank Group has announced $3.5 billion in aid for Ukraine this year. The European Bank of Reconstruction and Development expects to invest around €1 billion in Ukrainian projects this year. In addition, the European Union has recently unilaterally lifted its tariffs and quotas on Ukrainian imports.

Ukraine’s economic picture may look grim, but over the past several months Ukrainians have repeatedly demonstrated their unprecedented ingenuity and resolve to overcome the hardest of circumstances. With a newly elected President, we are more optimistic about Ukraine’s future than we have in a long time.

By: Ukrainian Credit Union Limited

Crisis In Ukraine - May 29 Briefing from UCC



Crisis in Ukraine: Daily Briefing
29 May 2014, 4PM Kyiv time

1. Central Election Commission receives all electronic protocols from 25 May election
The Central Election Commission of Ukraine has received all electronic protocols from the District Election Commissions regarding voting in each precinct from the 25 May presidential elections. Petro Poroshenko received 54.7% of the vote (9.8 million votes). Yulia Tymoshenko came second with 12.81 % (2.3 million votes) and Oleh Lyashko finished third with 8.3% (1.5 million votes). Voter turnout nationwide was 59.57%.  Poroshenko carried at least a plurality in all regions of Ukraine except the Autonomous Republic of Crimea, where the illegal occupation and annexation of Crimea by the Russian Federation prevented voting from taking place. The CEC must now accept official protocols from the District Election Commission and declare official results, after the results are published the new president will be inaugurated, likely in early June.

2. Kremlin-backed "separatism" in Eastern Ukraine
The active phase of the anti-terrorism operation in Donetsk and Luhansk continues. Near Slovyansk, Donetsk oblast, a Ukrainian armed forces helicopter has been shot down by armed “separatists;”  according to reports, 12 Ukrainian servicemen have been killed. The “separatist” group that shot down the helicopter has reportedly been destroyed by Ukraine’s National Guard. According to a representative of the headquarters of the anti-terrorist operation (ATO), Ukrainian forces are ready to organize a corridor to evacuate civilians from Slovyansk, which is surrounded by Ukrainian forces, in order to avoid civilian casualties. According to a representative of the Donetsk Oblast State Administration, some of the armed “separatists,” who claim to represent the so-called Donetsk “Peoples’ Republic” have started to panic and have started to cooperate with Ukrainian law enforcement and military units, providing information on locations of armed “separatist” units, and their movements. A representative of the operational group of the ATO, V. Selenznyov, stated that one of the leaders of the armed “separatists,” with the pseudonym “Abwer” tried to contact the headquarters of the anti-terrorist operation to begin negotiations. The ATO leadership responded that negotiations will only be possible once armed “separatists” turn in their weapons and surrender.

3. Ministry of Internal Affairs: Weapons used in seizure of Donetsk airport were Russian-manufactured
The Ministry of Internal Affairs stated that weapons used by armed “separatists” to seize the Donetsk airport on 26 May, which have been found by Ukrainian special forces at the airport, - according to serial numbers and models –  were manufactured in the Russian Federation.

4. Klitchko leads Kyiv mayoral race
With over two-thirds of precincts reporting results from the mayoral election on 25 May, UDAR leader Vitalyi Klitchko leads the Kyiv mayoral race with 56.5% of the vote; Lesya Orobets (8.5%) and Volodymyr Bondarenko (8.04%) are in second and third place, respectively.

5. Poroshenko to attend D-Day commemorations
According to reports, P. Poroshenko will attend the 70-th anniversary commemorations of the D-Day landings in Normandy, France, at the invitation of the President of France. Also attending, among other world leaders, will be US President B. Obama, German Chancellor A. Merkel and Russian President V. Putin.

Friday, May 23, 2014

A Giant Ripka at the Hamilton Farmers' Market? Vote here to help make it happen!

Toronto's Kosa Kolektiv (www.kosakolektiv.com) has been bringing fresh Ukrainian spirit, soul and folk art to the forefront of the GTA's cultural landscape over the last few years, inspiring many of us to re-embrace and celebrate our ancestors' vibrant and rich traditions. Whether trying our hand at crafts, dusting off our voices at a singing workshop, or taking part in holidays and celebrations like our ancestors once did, Kosa has lead the charge in a cultural revival that has reinvigorated our Ukrainian spirit and brought a lot of colour and fun to our community.

Now, two of its members, Olenka Kleban and Oksana Hawrylak, are in the running for the Hamilton Farmers' Market Public Art Contest -  with an amazing proposal based around the the classic Eastern European children's story The Turnip (or "Ripka" as its known in Ukrainian).


Designed and styled to look like intricate traditional papercuts common in many cultures, the steel turnip leaf sculptures (of course made of Hamiltonian steel!) will stand 4'-7' tall, with one featuring an adapted translation of the traditional "Ripka" story for all to share and enjoy. Read the story and learn more about their proposal here. 

Just like this favourite story teaches - when we all work together, tremendous things can be achieved - support these incredible and talented community leaders bring the Ripka story to life by voting HERE, and sharing with your friends!

The contest closes this Sunday, May 25th - so ensure you cast your vote by Sunday!


Canadian Bandurist Capella holding benefit for Nebesnya Sotnya

We received an appeal from one of our friends to let people know about this great concert. Full text of the email is below:


Dear Friends and Colleagues of the Canadian Bandurist Capella,

Since the end of November 2013 most of us have been following events evolving in our Ukraine with a very keen interest.  We read news articles, watch videos, connect with Twitter and Facebook updates just to stay informed and feel an urgent need to assist our brethren back home.  
Now there is a way you can personally get involved and help the families of our fallen heroes in a huge way.  This coming Saturday 24th May at 7:30pm, the Canadian Bandurist Capella will be holding a benefit concert at St Pius X Church at 2035 Bloor St West Toronto.  This concert has been organized to ensure all profits will be channeled to support the families of the Nebesnya Sotnya.   This is not the only benefit performance that the Capella has been a participant.   We were also part of the Canada & Ukraine Together Benefit Concert of 28 March last at the Living Arts Centre Mississauga, were a significant amount of funds were raised for this cause.  

As Ukrainians we all rally around the Tryzub our National Symbol (Coat of Arms) and our National Instrument the “Bandura”.  We are therefore delighted to have as guest performers the Vira Zelinska Ukrainian Youth Bandura Capella “Zoloti Struny” as part of this event.

The Performance on Saturday will be conducted by our Artistic Director Andriy Dmytrovych and is steeped in our national traditional Kobzar art-form lased with patriotic, spiritual and folk pieces as well as unique works specifically written and developed to depict the struggle at the Maidan.  

The folks at the Maidan devoted countless days and took immeasurable risks in hopes to enshrine true democracy in Ukraine.  We are simply asking you to devote just two hours of your time to come to our concert and be entertained by two outstanding Capellas. We know you will be moved by our performances which will fulfill your Ukrainian Sprit and enrich your Soul.

Tickets will be available at the door or alternatively they can be arranged through our ticket email capellatickets@gmail.com or by phone at 416-232-2514.

Come help the families of our fallen heroes by attending our concert on Saturday evening.

Volodymyr Olenych                          Steve Dacko            
 President                                         Events Management        
Canadian Bandurist Capella               Canadian Bandurist Capella
Email: info@ banduristy.com             Phone:  905-820-1220                      
www.banduristy.com                        Email: banduristy@gmail.com

Please Forward this email to whoever you feel could support this worthwhile cause….Thank You!


Фінансовий Коментар - Гарячі гроші підігрівають ринок

Гарячі гроші далі підігрівають ринок облігацій

Вважається, що м’яка грошово-кредитна політика центральних банків США і Канади ось уже п'ять років є однією з основних причин сильного росту акцій. Американські акції цього року ставлять нові історичні рекорди, в той час як канадські акції зараз вже майже досягли своїх максимумів, які були поставлені у докризовий період. Ринки облігацій зараз також переповнені ліквідністю і прибутковість облігацій знижується. З початку року прибутковість 10-річних казначейських облігацій США знизилася на 40 базисних пунктів до 2.60%, а дохідність 10-річних облігацій Уряду Канади – на 60 базисних пунктів до 2.30%.

Ця тенденція перекинулася на облігації спекулятивного рівня (високоприбуткові або сміттєві облігації). Згідно Bloomberg і Barclays Plc, прибутковість дрібних і ризикованих випусків американських облігацій зараз дуже ненабагато перевищує прибутковість більших випусків облігацій з меншим ризиком: розрив у дохідності між ними впав від 1.05% на кінець 2011 р. майже до нуля. Цей процес має також позитивні наслідки для реального сектора економіки: Bloomberg повідомляє, що боргове фінансування невеликих компаній і, зокрема їх активності зі злиттів та поглинань, стало набагато дешевшим завдяки тому, що лише у квітні інвестори принесли $230 млн. у пайові фонди, які фокусуються на високоприбуткових облігаціях (за даними Інституту інвестиційних фондів Канади).

Тривалий період м'якої грошово-кредитної політики досі призвів переважно до більш агресивної фінансової діяльності, у той час як інвестиції в основний капітал і економічне зростання залишаються досить помірними як у Канаді, так і в США. Найближчим часом стане більш зрозуміло, чи недавнє падіння прибутковості облігацій є сигналом про нове сповільнення економіки, а чи дешеві гроші знайдуть свій шлях в реальний сектор і допоможуть економічному зростанню.

Українська Кредитова Спілка Лимитед

Financial Comment - Hot money fuelling bonds

Hot money keeps fuelling bonds

For five years now, it is viewed by many that the accommodative monetary policies of U.S. and Canadian central banks has been a major reason for the strong performance of stocks. American stocks are posting new historic highs this year, while Canadian stocks are reaching their pre-crisis highs. The bond markets are also flush with liquidity and bond yields are declining. Year to date, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond’s yield dropped by 40 basis points to about 2.60% while the 10-year Government of Canada yield dropped by 60 basis points to about 2.30%.

This trend has spilled over to the speculative grade (high-yield or junk) bond market. According to Bloomberg and Barclays Plc, investors are earning very little extra yield on smaller and riskier American bond issues as compared to lower-risk, bigger issues: the yield gap between them has collapsed from 1.05% in late 2011 to almost zero. This process is not without positives for the real sector of the economy: Bloomberg reports that it has become much cheaper to finance smaller companies and in particular their M&A activity with bond issues as investors added $230 million to high-yield focused mutual funds in April, according to the Investment Funds Institute of Canada.

So far, the long period of easy monetary policy has lead to more aggressive financial activity, while capital investment and economic growth remain moderate in both Canada and the U.S. Over the next while, it will become more clear whether the recent decline in bond yields is a precursor of more trouble for the economy or cheaper money will find its way into the real sector and bring about economic growth.

By: Ukrainian Credit Union Limited

Thursday, May 22, 2014

Crisis in Ukraine - UCC Daily Briefing for May 22


Crisis in Ukraine: Daily Briefing 
22 May 2014

1. Kremlin-backed "separatism" in Eastern Ukraine
Тhe active phase of the anti-terrorist operation in Donetsk and Luhansk continues. Increased fighting took place in several regions; 13 Ukrainian armed forces personnel were killed and 20 wounded as “separatists” tried to break through encirclements. Casualties on the side of the armed “separatists” were reportedly high, but accurate numbers have not been reported. The Ministry of Defense reported that “separatist” strongholds have been encircled in several areas. On the night of 21-22 May armed “separarist” militants attempted to break through the encirclement at two places – near the Russian border in Stanychno-Luhansk district and near Olhino, about 40 km south of Donetsk. “Separatists” opened fire on Ukrainian army checkpoints with heavy weaponry; the Ukrainian army responded and held the checkpoints. Deputy Secretary of Ukraine’s National Defense and Security Council V. Syumar stated that “Today the terrorists are very worried. They are frightened, because there are signs that Russia is getting ready to withdraw its armies. It has become clear to the terrorists that they will not receive military support, as happened in Crimea. And because of this they are using radical measures.” 4 mines in Lysychansk, Luhansk oblast, have reportedly been seized by armed “separatists.” The “leader” of the so-called Luhansk “Peoples’ Republic” has asked Russian President V. Putin to send the Russian army into Luhansk oblast.

2. Parubiy: “Separatists” being trained near Rostov-On-Don
National Defense and Security Council Secretary A. Parubiy stated that Kremlin-backed “separatists” are being trained at a base near Rostov-on-Don and being sent to Ukrainian territory. “At this base a very large amount of militants are being trained by Russian instructors after which in organized, armed groups they attempt to cross onto Ukrainian territory,” Parubiy stated. According to Parubiy, from northern Luhansk west to Slovyansk, 11 counties – are under the full control of the Ukrainian government. Roadblocks have been set up to ensure that Russian-trained “diversionists” are not allowed to cross into Ukrainian territory.

3. Mahera: Several districts in Donetsk and Luhansk are not ready for elections

Win 1 of 5 pairs of tickets to go to "Save our Souls" Classical Music Event!

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Wednesday, May 21, 2014

Фінансовий Коментар - Золото: барометер економічної та політичної ситуації

Куди рухається ціна на золото?

Після різкого падіння восени 2012 р. - навесні 2013 р. ціна на золото рухається в бічному тренді в діапазоні US$1,200-US$1,400 за унцію вже рівно рік. Золото в даний час торгується прямо посередині цього діапазону, близько $1,300 за унцію. Ми не маємо наміру робити прогноз ціни золота, однак хотіли би розглянути рух цієї ціни, яка часто є барометром світової економічної та політичної ситуації.

Наприклад, зростання ціни золота до майже $1,380 в середині березня цього року було, зокрема, пов'язане з російським вторгненням до Криму. З того моменту всі рухи ціни золота, принаймні частково, пов'язувалися експертами ринку зі злетами і падіннями напруженості в Україні. Однак, як ми вже відзначали у недавньому блозі, що довше триває українська ситуація, то слабшою стає реакція ринку на неї. Це згасання реакції є відображенням відносної байдужості до української ситуації на Заході, і у той же час деякого поліпшення перспектив замирення в Україні. Водночас, ринок не виключає також перспективу ескалації цієї ситуації, яка підтримує ціну золота.

Ще одним важливим фактором, який впливає на ціну золота, є прогнози про напрямок руху монетарної політики у США, зокрема про темпи припинення викупу активів Федеральною резервною системою. Кожна оптимістична економічна новина зі Сполучених Штатів посилює очікування швидкого припинення політики кількісного пом’якшення і відповідно понижує ціни на золото, і навпаки. Фізичний попит на золото з боку Китаю та Індії, який також є значним фактором, залишається сильним. Зокрема, нещодавний ріст золота до $1,300 за унцію можна приписати на очікування того, що індійський уряд полегшить обмеження на імпорт золота (Bloomberg).

Прогнози ціни золота на цей рік, схоже, схиляються до нижньої межі поточного цінового діапазону. Серед більш низьких прогнозів – прогноз Goldman Sachs, $1,050 через 12 місяців, що ґрунтується на очікуванні поліпшень у економіці США. Провідна незалежна консалтингова фірма у царині дорогоцінних металів GFMS Ltd очікує середню ціну цього року на рівні $1,225. Інвестиційний банк UBS AG нещодавно підняв свій прогноз на 2014 р. до $1,300 на очікуваннях підвищеного попиту на золото в якості безпечного активу і сильного попиту з боку азіатських покупців. Медіанний прогноз дев'яти аналітиків, які займаються ринком золота і відслідковуються Bloomberg, на кінець 2014 року становить $1,165. Два найбільш точні аналітики з цієї групі є ще більшими песимістами і їх прогнози схожі на прогноз Goldman Sachs.

Українська Кредитова Спілка Лимитед

Financial Comment - The price of gold

Where is the price of gold going?

After a steep plunge in the fall 2012 – spring 2013, the price of gold has been moving sideways in the range of US$1,200-US$1,400 per ounce for about a year now. It is currently trading right in the middle of that range, at around $1,300 per ounce. Without making a call on the price, it is interesting to consider the movements of the gold price, which has often been a barometer for the global economic and political situation.

For instance, the growth of the gold price to almost $1,380 in mid-March 2014 was in particular attributed to the Russian invasion of Crimea. All movements in the price of gold since then have, at least partly, been linked to the change in level of tension in Ukraine. However, as we pointed out in a recent blog, the longer the Ukrainian situation lasts, the weaker the market’s reaction to it becomes. This fading reaction is a reflection of the relative indifference towards a situation that doesn’t appear to touch the West, but also some improved hopes for peace in Ukraine. At the same time, the market does not discount the prospect of escalation of the situation which supports the gold price.

Another major factor influencing the price of gold is the expectations for the direction of monetary expansion in the U.S. economy, and, correspondingly, the pace of asset purchase tapering by the US Federal Reserve. Every bit of more optimistic data for the U.S. economy drives the gold price lower (as expectations of quicker tapering increase) and vice versa. Physical demand for gold from China and India, which is also an important factor, remains strong. In particular, the gold’s recent climb to $1,300 per ounce was attributed to speculation that the Indian government will relax import restrictions on gold (Bloomberg).

Gold price forecasts for this year seem to lean towards the lower limits of the current price range. Among the lower forecasts is $1,050 in the next 12 months, according to Goldman Sachs, based on an improved outlook for the U.S. economy. A leading independent precious metals consultancy GFMS Ltd estimates average 2014 gold prices at $1,225. The investment bank UBS AG has recently increased its 2014 forecast to $1,300 on increased safe haven demand and buying from Asian consumers. The median forecast of the nine gold analysts tracked by Bloomberg for the late 2014 is $1,165. The two most accurate gold price forecasters in the group are more bearish with targets similar to that of Goldman Sachs.

By: Ukrainian Credit Union Limited

Tuesday, May 20, 2014

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Crisis in Ukraine - May 20 Briefing from UCC



Crisis in Ukraine: Daily Briefing 
20 May 2014, 5PM Kyiv time

1. Kremlin-backed "separatism" in Eastern Ukraine
The active phase of the anti-terrorism operation in Donetsk and Luhansk continues. Donetsk businessman Rinat Akhmetov called a “warning” strike at noon at his companies to protest against the violence caused by armed “separatists” of the so-called Donetsk and Luhansk “Peoples’ Republics.” The strike was also joined by cars that proceeded to Donbas Arena, the soccer stadium in Donetsk. There are reports that some 30 people attacked and vandalized cars that were supporting the strike. “Separatists” who represent the so-called Donetsk “Peoples’ Republic” stated that they will begin “nationalizing” Akhmetov’s companies for his refusal to pay taxes to the “Republic.” Armed “separatists” reportedly blocked one of the roads leading into Donetsk and are turning back all buses that are heading into Donetsk from the Horlivka and Yenakieve roads. Armed “separatists” attacked a precinct election commission in Mariupol. One member of the district election commission (DEC – commissions responsible for the administration of the 25 May elections) in the city was injured. According to the Central Election Commission, of 22 DECs in Donetsk oblast, 6 have been seized by armed “separatists.” In Luhansk, of 12 DECs 5 are blocked from working, and three are being pressured by armed “separatists.” 2 “separatist” roadblocks in Kramatorsk, have been cleared by anti-terrorism operation forces. There were no casualties reported on the Ukrainian side.

2. UN: at least 10,000 people displaced because of crisis

Friday, May 16, 2014

This Blessed Land: Crimea and the Crimean Tatars

The John Yaremko Chair of Ukrainian Studies at the University of Toronto will be commemorating the 70th Anniversary of the deportation of the Crimean Tatars by Soviet forces with an inter-faith memorial service and a book launch (see flyer on left).

Prior to the presentation of the book This Blessed Land: Crimea and the Crimean Tatars by Professor Paul Robert Magosci, The Chair of the Tatar Mejlis and Member of Ukraine's Parliament Mustafa Dzhemilev will deliver an address.

About the speakers:


MUSTAFA DZHEMILEV

“Mustafa Dzhemilev, a former Soviet dissident and leader of the Crimean Tatar national movement, is a rare example of resolutely non-violent protest in the face of overwhelming odds. He was six months old at the time of the Crimean deportation, and at the age of 18 founded the Union of Crimean Tatar Youth that formed the base for the eventually successful campaign to rehabiliate his people.  He spent 15 years in Soviet labour camps and conducted one of the world’s longest hunger strikes, 303 days, during which he was force fed.  Now, at the age of 70, he has retired from leading the Majlis of the Crimean Tatar People, though he sits in the Ukrainian parliament.”

Excerpt from an article  by Alan Philips, “Mustafa Dzhemilev: the man who might clip Putin’s wings”  “The National”  March 27, 2014

DR. ANDREW P.W. BENNETT

“Dr. Bennett is a public servant and academic with an extensive educational background in history, political science and religious studies.

He has worked for the Privy Council Office, Export Development Canada and Natural Resources Canada in a wide variety of analytical, research and corporate roles.  Dr. Bennett has also held roles as a Scholar Expert on the Americas Desk with Oxford Analytica and as a Researcher with the University of Edinburgh’s Institute on Governance where he focused on the process of devolution in Scotland.

Dr. Bennett is a leader in his community actively involved with the Augustine College in Ottawa as volunteer Dean and as Professor the History of Christianity.  He is also a religious leader in his capacity as Subdeacon and Cantor with both the Holy Cross Eastern Catholic Chaplaincy and St. John the Baptist Ukrainian-Catholic Shrine, both in Ottawa.  He previously served as Vice-President and Chairman of the Metropolitan Andrey Sheptytsky Institute Foundation.”

Source:  Government of Canada
http://www.international.gc.ca/religious_freedom-liberte_de_religion


Фінансовий Коментар - Чи наближається корекція фондового ринку?

Чи наближається корекція фондового ринку?

Якийсь час тому ми писали про можливі ознаки прийдешньої корекції фондового ринку і відзначили, що першою групою акцій, яка починає падати, традиційно є акції маленьких компаній. Деякі аналітики вважають, що зазвичай невеликі акції починають знижуватися за вісім місяців до того, як широкий ринок досягне своєї вершини. Останнім часом починає здаватися, що період падіння невеликих акцій вже настав. Зокрема, індекс Russell 2000, який репрезентує сегмент малих компаній фондового ринку США, знизився з початку березня більш ніж на 9%. Ще один показник міцності фондового ринку, індекс технологічних компаній Nasdaq Composite, знизився майже на 7% за той же період.

У той час як індекс NASDAQ протягом останнього місяця знаходиться у бічному тренді, Russell 2000 продовжує знижуватися. Індекс вступить на територію корекції, якщо впаде більш ніж на 10% від попереднього піку. Широкий ринок і досі почувається добре: індекс S&P 500 показав своє найвище історичне значення цього вівторка, яке було майже на 9% вище у порівнянні з початком лютого. Учасники фондового ринку уважно спостерігають за фондовими індексами, оскільки на широкому американському ринку не було падіння більш ніж на 10% з літа 2011 року, і багато хто вважає, що така корекція назріла давно.

Динаміка канадського фондового ринку, схоже, вже досить давно не пов'язана з динамікою американського. 2013-й був дуже гарним роком для усіх американських індексів, і не аж таким гарним для канадських. Цього року – все навпаки: з початку року S&P 500 виріс на 1%, а Russell 2000 знизився більш ніж на 6%, у той час як широкий канадський індекс S&P/TSX Composite виріс майже на 7%, а індекс компаній малої капіталізації S&P/TSX Venture Composite – майже на 5%. Канадські індекси ростуть, оскільки вони оговтуються від тривалого періоду відставання, а також на тлі підвищення цін на деякі сировинні товари. А от чи зачепить канадські акції потенційна корекція на американському ринку, ще належить з'ясувати.

Українська Кредитова Спілка Лимитед

Financial Comment - Is a stock market correction coming?

Is a stock market correction coming?
We wrote some time ago about possible signs of a coming stock market correction and noted that, historically, the first group of stocks to start correcting has been the small caps. Some analysts believe that the usual time period is eight months for the smaller cap shares to decline prior to a general market top. Has the time arrived for the small stocks to decline? It may seem so as the Russell 2000 Index, which represents the small-cap segment of the U.S. equity universe, has now dropped by more than 9% since early March. Another indicator of the stock market strength, the tech-heavy NASDAQ Composite index, has dropped by almost 7% over the same period.

While the NASDAQ index has been moving sideways over the past month, Russell 2000 is continuing to decline. The index would enter correction territory if it dropped more than 10% off the peak. The broad market is still doing well with the S&P 500 index hitting an all-time high reading this past Tuesday, which was almost 9% up from the low posted in early February. The stock market participants are watching the stock indices closely as the broad U.S. market has not had a more than 10% pullback since the summer of 2011 and many believe that such a correction is long overdue.

The Canadian stock market seems to have decoupled from the American one. In 2013, all U.S. indices had a very good year, unlike Canadian indices. This year to date, S&P 500 is up by about 1% and Russell 2000 is down more than 6%, while the broad Canadian S&P/TSX Composite Index has grown by almost 7% and the small-cap index S&P/TSX Venture Composite is also up, by almost 5%. The Canadian indices are doing better as they are recovering from a long period of underperformance and also on the background of higher prices for some commodities. It remains to be seen whether a potential correction of the U.S. market will affect Canadian stocks.

By: Ukrainian Credit Union Limited

UCU to be featured on Etobicoke Now!


Ukrainian Credit Union Limited is being featured on Etobicoke Now which airs on Rogers TV cable channel 10 (Toronto) and cable channel 63 (Scarborough).  

The feature will premiere on Tuesday May 20th and then repeat several times during the week. Here are the airtimes:

Tuesday @ 7:30pm
Wednesday @ 10:30pm
Thursday @ 9:30am
Friday @ 4pm

For more info on the show and next week’s repeat schedule, visit: www.rogerstv.com/etobicokenow


Don't miss it!

Crisis in Ukraine Briefing - Tatars being persecuted in Crimea


Crisis in Ukraine: Daily Briefing 
16 May 2014

1. Kremlin-backed "separatism" in Eastern Ukraine
The active phase of the anti-terrorist operation in Donetsk and Luhansk continues. In Mariupol, steelworkers took down blockades and barricades put up around the city by Kremlin-backed “separatists.” Armed “separatists” attacked a building at a military airbase outside Kramatorsk, Donetsk oblast; a 20-minute firefight ensued. The Ministry of Defense reports that there were no casualties on the Ukrainian side. A 15-minute shootout took place at a National Guard checkpoint outside Mariupol, Donetsk oblast, which was attacked by armed “separatists” who fired automatic weapons. There were no injuries reported on the Ukrainian side. The State Security Service (SBU) reports that they have detained 6 members of a criminal group in Odesa who were organizing mercenaries to fight Ukrainian law enforcement units in Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. The Ministry of Internal Affairs reports that in Luhansk oblast, special forces detained O. Relke, the commander of the so-called “South-East Army.” The Minister of Internal Affairs stated that Relke was one of the “most radical terrorists active in the east of the country.” According to the Committee of Voters, the head of a District Election Commission in Luhansk has been kidnapped and apparently taken to the Luhansk SBU building, which is currently occupied by “separatists.”

2. Ukraine Ministry of Foreign Affairs reacts to planned Russian military exercises
Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a statement in response to the announcement by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation that military exercises by the Russian Air Force will be held near the cities of Lipetsk, Voronezh and Ryazan, on May 21-25. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that “Russia conducting military exercises near the Ukrainian border on Ukraine's presidential election day testifies to the reality of Russia's continuous efforts to further destabilize the situation in, inter alia, the Eastern regions of Ukraine, as well as to the brutal pressure applied on the Ukrainian people. We categorically demand the Russian Federation to cease the practice of provoking instability, to withdraw formations of the Russian Armed Forces from Ukraine’s border and to fulfill the obligations it undertook in accordance with the Geneva Ukraine Accord.”

3. Crimean “authorities” ban mass meetings until 6 June
According to several sources, by decree of the “Prime Minister” of Crimea, S. Aksyonov, mass meetings have been banned in occupied Crimea until 6 June. On 18 May, the Crimean Tatar People will commemorate the 70th anniversary of their mass deportation from Crimea; mass commemorations are planned.

4. Dzemiliev: Crimean “authorities” repeating actions of USSR
Speaking following threats by the Crimean “Prosecutor” to dissolve the Mejlis, and yesterday’s mass searches of the homes of Crimean Tatars, M. Dzemiliev, leader of the Crimean Tatar People, stated in an interview that the threat by the illegal, occupying “authorities” to dissolve the Mejlis, “is a continuation of the policies of the authorities of the Soviet Union…Soviet authorities did not recognize our national movement, called us extremists and anti-Soviets. This is now being repeated. If the Mejlis is banned, it will continue to function in the underground.” Dzemiliev was banned from entering Crimea by the occupying “authorities” for five years.

Happy Victoria Day!

Happy Victoria Day! Ukrainian Credit Union will be closed on Monday May 19th for Victoria Day.

Wednesday, May 14, 2014

Tribute to Liberty - Memorial to the VIctims of Communism


UCC REMINDER: TRIBUTE TO LIBERTY FUNDRAISER WITH PRIME MINISTER HARPER TO TAKE PLACE MAY 30, 2014:
REGISTER NOW!



The Ukrainian Canadian Congress encourages the community to register to attend the Tribute to Liberty Fundraiser with Prime Minister Harper for the Memorial to the Victims of Communism on May 30, 2014 at the Toronto Congress Center. The deadline to register for the event is May 25, 2014. Additional information can be found on the attached poster.


To purchase your tickets to attend,  the Tribute to Liberty Fundraiser with Prime Minister Stephen Harper, please click here.



Taras Zalusky, Executive Director
Ukrainian Canadian Congress
(613) 232 - 8822
taras.zalusky@ucc.ca
________________________________________

UCC Media Contact:
The UCC National Office
Telephone: (613) 232 - 8822
Email: ucc@ucc.ca
Website: www.ucc.ca

Пресовий референт Конґресу Українців Канади:
Hаціональний офіс KYK
телефон: (613) 232 - 8822
електронна адреса: ucc@ucc.ca
інтернет-сторінка: www.ucc.ca


Crisis in Ukraine - UCC Briefing for May 14


Crisis in Ukraine: Daily Briefing
14 May 2014 

1. Kremlin-backed "separatism" in Eastern Ukraine
The active phase of the anti-terrorist operation in Donetsk and Luhansk continues. The self-declared “Peoples’ Governor” of the illegal so-called “Peoples’ Republic of Luhansk" V. Bolotov has reportedly left Ukraine and gone to Russia. According to the Ukrainian Orthodox Church Kyiv Patriarchate, its priests are being threatened in the eastern regions. The bishop of Luhansk and Starobilsk, Afanasiy, has had to go into hiding because of threats. According to the head of the independent professional miners’ union of the Donbas, armed “separatists” have attacked or blocked mines and miners from going to work on several occasions. There are reports in the media that the principal of School No. 42 in Luhansk, O. Shevchenko, was kidnapped by 4 armed men in camouflage. In Atratsyt, Luhansk oblast, the building of District Election Commission No. 111 has been seized by “separatists,” who have reportedly threatened the members of the commission in order to have them to stop preparations for the election. 

2. Lavrov: Russia has no plans to send army to Ukraine
Foreign Affairs Minister S. Lavrov stated on 14 May that the Russian Federation has no plans to send the Russian army into Donetsk or Luhansk in the event that the Russian Federation doesn’t recognize Ukraine’s presidential elections of 25 May. It is worth noting that Russian President Putin denied the presence of Russian troops in Crimea for several days before admitting the presence of Russian troops in Crimea.

3. Ministry of Justice: Occupation of Crimea has cost 1 trillion UAH
According to P. Petrenko, the illegal occupation and annexation of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea by the Russian Federation has cost Ukraine over 1 trillion UAH (approx. $100 billion); these costs will continue to rise as the Russian Federation continues to exploit resources in the Crimea, including natural gas in the Black Sea shelf.

4. Roundtable on National Unity held in Kyiv
At 16:30 Ukraine time the first all-Ukrainian roundtable on National Unity began in Kyiv. The roundtable is being attended by acting President Turchynov, heads of oblast and city government in eastern Ukraine, candidates for president, religious and community leaders. The roundtable is chaired by two former presidents of Ukraine, L. Kravchuk, and L. Kuchma. More on the results of the roundtable will follow tomorrow.

Tuesday, May 13, 2014

Crisis in Ukraine - UCC Briefing for May 13


Crisis in Ukraine: Daily Briefing 
13 May 2014


1. Kremlin-backed "separatism" in Eastern Ukraine
The Ministry of Defense reports that 20 km from Kramatorsk, a Ukrainian armed forces column was ambushed by armed “separatists,” who used a grenade launcher to attack a personnel carrier. 6 Ukrainian servicemen were killed and 8 were wounded in the firefight. The active phase of the anti-terrorist operation in Donetsk and Luhansk continues. According to reports from several media sources, Kremlin-backed “separatists” have unblocked the centre of Mariupol, Donetsk oblast, and two roadblocks on Lenin and Metalurhiv streets in the city have been cleared, after negotiations with city authorities. 2 armed “separatists” were detained by Ministry of Defense troops in Luhansk oblast. During the night of 12-13 May armed “separatists” in Slovyansk (Donetsk oblast) opened fire on a television tower and on positions held by Ukraine’s law enforcement troops.  The head of the Mariupol police Department, V. Andrushchak, who was taken hostage on 9 May by armed “separatists,” was freed from captivity on 12 May. He underwent surgery for his wounds on 12 May, and remains in critical condition. Two District Election Commissions, responsible for organizing the presidential elections in their respective districts - in Horlivka and Starobeshev, Donetsk oblast, have been blocked from working by “separatists.”

2. NATO: Russia still massing troops on Ukraine’s border
The US State Department released photographs taken on 12 May, which show that despite Russian President’s Putin claim that Russian armed forces have been withdrawn, Russian troops are still massed near Ukraine’s borders.

3. Ukraine, EU sign aid deal
In Brussels, Ukraine’s Prime Minister, A. Yatseniuk and European Commission President J. Barroso signed the conclusion of the Memorandum of Assistance, which gives effect to the 1 billion Euro ($1.37 billion) aid deal – the Macro Financial Assistance Loan Program, as well as a “State Building Contract” program, (355 million Euro), plus 10 million Euro in support for civil society, which is aimed at stabilization and the implementation of governance reforms, transparency and anti-corruption measures.

4. Parliament creates Commission on Odesa and Mariupol; passes series of EU visa measures
Ukraine’s parliament established a Temporary Commission on Investigating facts of mass deaths in Odesa, Mariupol, Krasnoarmiysk, and other cities in eastern and southern Ukraine. The head of the Commission will be A. Kisse; the Commission is scheduled to work for two months, and will present a report on completed work to Parliament not later than 15 June 2014. 263 MPs supported the resolution. Parliament also passed a series of laws, including anti-corruption and anti-discrimination legislation that brings Ukraine’s legislation in line with liberalization of the visa regime with the European Union


Вибори Президента України - Генеральне консульство України в Торонто


Генеральне консульство України в Торонто
Consulate General of Ukraine in Toronto
Consulat Général de l`Ukraine

PRESS-RELEASE

09 травня 2014 року

До уваги громадян України, які
проживають або перебувають в Канаді


Вибори Президента України
25 травня 2014 року

25 травня 2014 року відбудуться позачергові вибори Президента України. Центральна виборча комісія України постановою від  6 травня 2014 року № 484 утворила дільничну виборчу комісію закордонної виборчої дільниці №900038 при Генеральному консульстві України в Торонто на позачергових виборах Президента України 25 травня 2014 року.
Голосування на закордонній виборчій дільниці №900038 буде проводитися 25 травня 2014 року з 08 до 20 години в приміщенні для голосування, що знаходиться в Генеральному консульстві України в Торонто за адресою: 2275 Lake Shore Blvd. West, Suite #301, Toronto Ontario, M8V 3Y3. Голосування буде проводитися за умови пред’явлення дійсного паспорта громадянина України для виїзду за кордон та включення до списку виборців.
Своє включення до попереднього списку виборців на дільниці №900038 можна перевірити у приміщенні дільничної виборчої комісії (ДВК) закордонної виборчої дільниці №900038 при Генеральному консульстві України в Торонто, або за телефонами ДВК : 416-947-8462, 416-763-3115. Зміни до попереднього списку виборців можуть бути внесені тільки до 17 травня 2014 включно.


                                                                         Генеральне консульство України в Торонто

Фінансовий Коментар - Огляд ринку з думкою про Україну

Огляд ринку з думкою про Україну

Ті, хто уважно стежить за розвитком подій в Україні, знають, якою напруженою і часто трагічною є ситуація: російські та місцеві терористи продовжують порушувати нормальний плин життя у східних реґіонах, катувати і вбивати українців. У той же час, як це часто буває, багато хто у інших країнах сприймає цю ситуацію по-іншому. Стає все більш зрозуміло, що глобальні фінансові та інвестиційні ринки не хвилюються з приводу безпосередніх небезпек, які походять від української ситуації, і займають вичікувальну позицію.

Після так званого "референдуму", який був "проведений" терористами у минулу неділю, і який може розглядатися Путіним як передумова для повномасштабного нападу на Україну, основні американські і канадські фондові індекси виросли на 1%-2% в понеділок. Навіть російські ринки виросли в понеділок і на даний момент вже піднялися на 16% від своєї нижньої позначки, яка була встановлена у середині березня, коли кримське вторгнення було у самому розпалі.

Ми сподіваємося, що ринки сприймають українську ситуацію правильно. Якщо Росія не відповість на заклики лідерів терористів і не здійснить вторгнення в Україну, ситуація може залишитись відносно стабільною, принаймні до президентських виборів 25 травня. У цьому випадку, українські військові і сили безпеки, а також громадськість, мали би гарні можливості знищити терористичну загрозу. Це також збільшило би шанси на проведення мирних і прозорих виборів.

Цими днями також надійшли новини більш довготермінового характеру, пов'язані з україно-російською ситуацією: Саудівська Аравія, найбільший у світі виробник і експортер нафти, в понеділок запевнила ринки про свою готовність збільшити постачання нафти, якщо криза у Східній Україні створить дефіцит нафти (International Business Times). Ця заява була сприйнята багатьма спостерігачами як сигнал для Росії про можливі санкції проти її нафтогазової промисловості, яка має життєво важливе значення для її економіки. На тлі відтоку капіталів з Росії, який Європейський центральний банк зараз оцінює більш ніж у $220 млрд. з початку кризи (The Telegraph), подібні санкції можуть мати руйнівні наслідки для російської економіки.

Українська Кредитова Спілка Лимитед

Financial Comment - Ukraine's effect on the markets

Market Update with Ukraine in mind

Those, who are closely following the developments in Ukraine, know how tense and often tragic the situation is with Russian and local terrorists continuing to disrupt normal life in the eastern regions, torture and kill Ukrainians. At the same time, as it often happens, the situation is seen differently from afar. It is becoming increasingly clear that the global financial and investment markets are shrugging off the immediate dangers of the Ukrainian situation and considering it a “wait and see” story.

After a so-called “referendum”, which was forged by the terrorists last Sunday and which may be considered by Putin as a prerequisite for intervention, the main U.S. and Canadian stock indices rose by 1%-2% on Monday. Even Russian stocks were up on Monday and have by now risen 16% from their bottom which was posted in mid-March when the Crimean invasion was at its height.

We hope that the markets take the Ukrainian situation correctly. If Russia does not act upon the calls of the terrorist leaders to invade Ukraine, the situation may remain relatively stable at least until the presidential elections on May 25. In this case, it would be up to the Ukrainian military and security forces, as well as the public, to drive the terrorists out of their strongholds and prevent them from spilling over to other areas. This would also increase the chances to hold peaceful and transparent elections.

As an important development of a longer-term nature related to the Ukraine-Russia relations, Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest producer and exporter of oil, on Monday reassured markets that it is willing to increase the supply of oil if the crisis in eastern Ukraine created a shortage (the International Business Times). This statement has been taken by many observers as a signal for Russia about possible sanctions against its oil and gas industry which is vital for its economy. On the background of capital flight from Russia, which the European Central Bank now estimates at more than $220 billion since the beginning of the crisis (The Telegraph), this kind of sanctions could be devastating for the Russian economy.

By: Ukrainian Credit Union Limited

Monday, May 12, 2014

"Fireflies" shadow theatre

We received an email from an interesting Ukrainian theatrical group over the weekend. We thought you might be interested in reading more about them. Here is the text of the email with some links for you to check them out:
















Hello,
 My name is Vladyslav. Presenting to your attention shadow theater «Fireflies». We are finalists of Polish talent show «Mam talent», semifinalists TV the projects " Minute of Fame" and "Ukraine got talent."
 Our work can be found on our website or the official channel Vimeo. www.fireflies.com.uahttps://vimeo.com/shadowtheaterfireflies Here are the links of the theater in social networks:
• YouTube: http://m.youtube.com/user/FirefliesUa• Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/Shadow.theater.Fireflies• Twitter: https://mobile.twitter.com/fireflies_ua• Instagram: http://instagram.com/fireflies_ua #
 We have passed the competition and won a place in an international talent show in Los Angeles, in which 75 000 participants from 50 countries around the world take part. The competition is going on under the patronage of Arnold Schwarzenegger and produced by Griff O'Neil of the "Miss Universe" pageant. This show is very popular not only in America but all around the world. Here are links to their official websites: http://www.wcopa.com/
We are looking for sponsors for this event. If you are interesting in this project I added to this letter PRESENTATION of our theatre and this project.
 Waiting for your answer. Looking forward to collaborating with you.
 All the best,
Team of shadow show Fireflies.


Below are images of the document that was attached to the email:

Партія Демократичний Альянс - A new kind of political party


A new party is coming into being in Ukraine organized by a new generation of Ukrainians who want to make their country a part of the democratic and prosperous world. They reject the oligarchic and corrupt model proposed by Putin and his cronies.

They are trying to run a transparent party that works for the people rather than pone that works for narrow political or financial interests. 

Watch their presentation at Ukraine Crisis Media Center Democratic Alliance at Crisis Center

Visit their web site Democratic Alliance Party site.

Фінансовий Коментар - Не ведмеді, а черепахи володіють ринками


Триває повільне відновлення економіки 

Ми хотіли би більш детально зупинитися на популярній нині темі, чи економіка і фондові ринки розвинених країн знаходяться на порозі падіння, відповідно до прогнозів деяких економістів. Глобальне економічне зростання останнім часом, схоже, сповільнилося: ВВП США виріс на мізерні 0.1% у першому кварталі 2014 р. порівняно з четвертим кварталом 2013 р., а ВВП Китаю у першому кварталі виріс найбільш повільним темпом за останні 18 місяців, на 7.4% порівняно з першим кварталом 2013 року.

Оскільки минулого року економіка США зросла лише на 1.9%, а економіка Канади – на 2.0%, такі результати виглядають як продовження дуже повільного відновлення. Насправді, за даними RBC Capital Markets, ми спостерігаємо найбільш повільне відновлення економіки США за весь період після Другої світової війни. Не краща ситуація і в Канаді: Банк Канади очікує, що цього року ВВП країни зросте на помірні 2.3%.

У попередньому блозі ми розглянули кілька показників, такі як крива прибутковості облігацій, капітальні витрати і рівень безробіття, і виявили, що всі вони далекі від рівнів, які би свідчили про наближення економічного спаду в США. Є ряд інших показників, які показують досить анемічну картину. Економічне падіння мало би слідувати за періодом прискорення інфляції, але в даний час наш центральний банк очікує, що інфляція в Канаді залишиться нижче цільового рівня у 2% принаймні ще два роки. Ще один показник економічної активності, будівництво нового житла, є млявим і в Канаді (у березні було збудовано менше 190,000 помешкань, вперше за півроку), і в США (падіння на 5.9% порівняно з березнем минулого року). Таким чином, імовірно, що уся сукупність показників вказує радше на повільне зростання, аніж на наближення економічного спаду.

Українська Кредитова Спілка Лимитед


Financial Comment - Slow recovery is slow

Economic recovery remains slow

We would like to elaborate on the currently popular topic of whether developed economies and stock markets are about to decline, which some economic pundits are prognosticating. Global economic growth seems to have decelerated lately: the U.S. GDP posted a paltry 0.1% growth in 1Q/2014 over 4Q/2013 and China’s grew at its slowest pace in 18 months, by 7.4% in 1Q/2014 from a year earlier.

With the U.S. economy’s growth in 2013 at just 1.9% and Canada’s at 2.0%, this looks like a continuation of a very slow recovery. In fact, according to RBC Capital Markets, this is the slowest recovery in the post-WWII period in the U.S. The domestic economy is not doing much better: for 2014, the Bank of Canada expects that Canada’s GDP will rise by a moderate 2.3%.

In the previous blog, we looked at several indicators such as bond yield curve, capital spending and level of unemployment, and found that they are all far from the levels that would set off alarms about an imminent economic downturn in the U.S. There are a number of other indicators that indicate an anemic picture. An economic drop would follow a period of accelerated inflation, while currently our central bank expects that inflation in Canada will remain below its 2% target for at least another two years. Another indicator of economic activity, housing starts, is sluggish in both Canada (came in below 190,000 units in March, for the first time in six months) and the U.S. (lower by 5.9% over a year earlier in March). Therefore, it appears that indicators are pointing towards slow growth, rather than an outright economic decline.

By: Ukrainian Credit Union Limited

Friday, May 9, 2014

Networking Event at SUSK Congress

Students grab the opportunity to develop networking skills
during the SUSK Congress in Toronto
Click below for highlights from last nights Networking event at SUSK Congress:

SUSK Networking event photo album.

Thursday, May 8, 2014

Walk for Ukraine - Walk for Peace

Ukrainian Canadian Congress is inviting everyone to join the Walk for Ukraine - Walk for Peace Walkathon. Below are the details of a letter we received yesterday from Markian Shwec of the UCC. Please consider participating:


Ukraine once again needs our help.

Ukraine is under siege by foreign and domestic provocateurs who are being paid to destabilize Ukraine and to disrupt the upcoming Presidential elections.  What you don’t see on TV is that hundreds of Ukrainian patriotic journalists, youth, and other activists in eastern Ukraine are being targeted on the streets, at their homes, and in their workplaces for standing up for Ukraine.  If they attend a demonstration to support a united Ukraine, they harassed or attacked.  Several have been kidnapped.  They now live in constant fear.  We are receiving daily requests for humanitarian, communication, logistics, and other support to help them and their families.  Many have fled, others are braving it out – after all these are their ancestral homelands. 

Join us for a Maidan Mega Walk-a-thon on Saturday, May 10 for peace in Ukraine and to raise much needed funds.  Info can be found at euromaidancanada.ca.

2:00 – 3:00    Registration at High Park (Lesya Ukrainka statue)
2:30 – 3:00    Maidan at High Park
3:00 – 4:30    Walk from High Park to St. Demetrius Parish (along Bloor and Royal York)
4:30 – 5:30    Music, food, ... (St. Demetrius Parish)

What to do?  Fill in the attached pledge form with donations from your friends. Walk 10 km. Enjoy food, drinks, and good friendship. 

Please attend and/or support this event.

If you are unable to attend, please consider making a donation at http://www.gofundme.com/UkraineReliefFund.
100% of funds are sent to help Ukraine.  All funds are managed directly by the Ukrainian Canadian Congress and are audited by an Audit Committee.


Please send this note to all your friends.

To all those who say “How can I help Ukraine?”, this is tour opportunity to get directly involved.


Slava Ukraini!


Markian Shwec

70th Anniversary of forced Tatar Deportation from Crimea

We received this appeal from Rustem Irsay, Presdient of the Crimean Tatar Community of Ontario. In this time of trouble for both the Ukrainian and Tatar nations, we ask that you consider attending:


Sunday May 18th at 2PM at UNF (145 Evans Ave)
Commemoration of the 70th Anniversary of forced Tatar Deportation from Crimea.
Dear Friends,

On behalf of the Crimean Tatar Community of Ontario and the Ukrainian Canadian Congress, we kindly invite you to attend the 70th anniversary commemoration of the forced deportation of Crimean Tatars from Crimea, Ukraine - our homeland.

This year commemorates the 70th anniversary of “Sürgünlik” or forced deportation of Crimean Tatars by Joseph Stalin, whose ultimate goal was to uproot the entire Tatar population.

In 1944, the entire Crimean Tatar population of 230,000 individuals - at the time, one fifth of the total population of the Crimean Peninsula - was forcefully exiled to Central Asia and Ural. More than 100,000 people died from starvation and disease on the way or shortly upon arrival to their final destinations.

The commemoration will start at 2pm on Sunday, May 18, 2014 and will include speeches from community leaders and relatives of the forced-deportation survivors, as well as tribute songs.

Should you have any further questions, please do not hesitate to contact Rustem Irsay at:

Phone: 647-878-5068 or Email: rustem555@hotmail.com.

The ceremony will take place at:
Trident Hall
145 Evans Ave. # 200.
Toronto, Ontario M8Z 5X7
We look forward to seeing you at our event.

Sincerely,

Rustem Irsay, President
Crimean Tatar Community of Ontario

Wednesday, May 7, 2014

Фінансовий Коментар - Передбачення "ринкових ведмедів"

Ринкові ведмеді знову роблять "передбачення"

Близько місяця тому ми писали у блозі, що після зростання на 2.6 % у четвертому кварталі 2013 р. ріст ВВП США у першому кварталі 2014 р. оцінювався багатьма на рівні до 2%. Реальність виявилася набагато гіршою. Наприкінці квітня Бюро економічного аналізу США видало попередню оцінку, що ВВП насправді виріс лише на 0.1%.

Ця оцінка може бути переглянута у бік збільшення, однак, подібні слабкі результати дають деякі підстави для нової хвилі скептичних очікувань щодо росту глобальної економіки і ринків. Згідно Yahoo Finance, такі економічні спостерігачі, як Джеремі Ґрентем, Марк Фабер і Нуріель Рубіні, які добре відомі своєю песимістичною позицією, останнім часом активізували свої прогнози про близький глобальний економічний спад.

Як правило, економічні та ринкові песимісти утримуються від надання будь-яких часових параметрів прогнозам економічного або ринкового погіршення. Це – зручна позиція, яку досить складно спростувати: поки економіка і ринки ростуть, ці прогнози вважаються можливими, але щоразу, як ринки падають, що є неминучою реальністю, ці провісники швидко оголошують, що вони мали рацію.

На цей раз, менеджер фондів глобальної інвестиційної компанії GMO Джеремі Ґрентем зробив конкретний прогноз про те, коли лусне ринкова бульбашка (згідно businessinsider.com). Він вважає , що американський фондовий ринок вже зараз є переоціненим і що ФРС вже закачало занадто багато ліквідності в економіку, але очікує, що бульбашка лусне ближче до президентських виборів у США 2016-го року.

Це більше, ніж 2 роки від сьогодні, і якщо станеться саме так, то нинішньому бичачому ринку, який почався у березні 2009 року, на той час буде сім з половиною років. Хоча засоби масової інформації можуть чіплятися за подібні передбачення, ми будемо чекати чітких економічних доказів, перш ніж повіримо, що ринки є переоцінені і рухаються в напрямку корекції. Слабке зростання ВВП є лише одним з декількох показників, які свідчать, що спад ринку – на горизонті. Також повинні з’явитися інші показники, у тому числі перевернута крива дохідності облігацій (яка в даний час є стрімко висхідною, що означає триваюче посилення ринку), більш високі капітальні витрати (які поки що не відбуваються), рівень безробіття 5% або нижче (який у США зараз перевищує 6%), а також ціновий тиск, який змушує підвищувати процентні ставки (перше підвищення ставок очікується в кінці 2015 року).

Українська Кредитова Спілка Лімітед

Financial Comment - Are markets really "over-valued"

Market Bears are Making ‘Predictions’ Again

About a month ago, we wrote in a blog that, after a 2.6% growth in the 4Q/2013, analyst estimates were that the U.S. GDP could have grown by up to 2% in 1Q/2014. The reality appeared to be much worse. In late April, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis issued an advance estimate that the GDP actually grew by just 0.1%.

This estimate may be revised upwards later, however, these weak results are giving some ground to a new wave of disappointing expectations about global economic and market growth. According to Yahoo Finance, such observers as Jeremy Grantham, Marc Faber and Nouriel Roubini, who are well-known for their pessimistic stance about the economy and markets, have recently intensified their predictions of a soon-to-happen global economic downturn.

Usually, economic and market pessimists abstain from providing any timing on their predictions of economic or market deterioration. This is a convenient position which such prognosticators hope is difficult to prove wrong: as long as the economy and markets grow, these predictions are considered possible, yet whenever the markets do turn down, which is an inevitable reality, these prognosticators are quick to announce how ‘accurate’ they were.

This time, Jeremy Grantham, fund manager at a global investment management firm GMO, made a specific call about when the market bubble will burst (per businessinsider.com). He believes that the American stock market is already overpriced and that the Fed has already pumped too much liquidity into the economy, but expects that the market bubble will burst around or after the 2016 U.S. presidential elections.

That’s more than a 2 year time frame, which if realized, would make the current bull market, starting from the lows of March 2009, seven and a half years old. Although the media may run with such stories, we’ll wait for the hard economic evidence before we believe that markets are overvalued and heading towards a correction. Weak GDP growth is only one of several indicators that a market downturn is on the horizon. Other indicators need to be aligned as well, including an inverted yield curve (which currently is quite steep, indicating continued market strength), higher capital spending (not yet evident), unemployment at or below 5% (still above 6% in the U.S.), and price pressures forcing a series of interest rate hikes (the first rate hike is anticipated in late 2015).

By: Ukrainian Credit Union Limited